Friday, 29 November 2019

Climate Change, fossil fuels and human welfare

The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change stated that the climate is a non-linear, complex, chaotic system that cannot be predicted. Early this century it deleted that acknowledgement from its website, not because the science had improved so as to render the climate predictable, but because it is an inconvenient fact. Indeed, all the predictions produced by the climate models have been shown to be false: always in the same direction: they have invariably over-estimated global warming.

This consistent error is due to the fact that the models are based on the global warming hypothesis. They treat the hypothesis as though it is a fact and thus, regardless of the data, they produce the assumed result: global warming.

The global warming hypothesis holds that increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes increased average global temperature. However, the data do not support the hypothesis. Since the beginning of the twentieth century, there has been a constant increase in carbon dioxide emissions. The level of carbon dioxide has risen from 0.029% to 0.04%. Yet the average global temperature has not consistently risen. There was a warming trend from 1910 to the early 1940s. There was a cooling trend from then until the mid-1970s. There was a warming trend from then until 1998. Since when there has been no statistically significant warming. These data show the hypothesis to be flawed.

When the data do not support the hypothesis, a scientist recognises that there is something wrong with the hypothesis. But that is not how the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change operates. They have turned this fundamental principle of the scientific method on its head. Every report from the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change asserts ever greater confidence in its predictions even though all its predictions have been proven false.

The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change is not a scientific body. Its reports are not disinterested science. Its reports are political instructions for policy makers. This is why its supposed science is not self correcting. It is why it ignores data that disprove the global warming hypothesis.

The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change is a political body. Its mandate is to promote the Climate Change narrative in order to justify supra-national control over energy that is not subject to the democratic pressures of nation states.

The large scale burning of fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution has provided humanity with the energy that has resulted in unprecedented improvements in human well-being. As a result, people live longer than ever before. They are wealthier, better educated, less violent. In fact, on any measure of welfare, there has never been a better time to be a member of our species. The Climate Change narrative threatens all this progress.

The Climate Change narrative requires that we stop burning fossil fuels. This is essential if we are to stop emitting carbon dioxide. If we stop burning fossil fuels all the improvements we have made since the Industrial Revolution will be reversed. Life expectancy would plummet. Disease would be rampant. Education would become a scarce resource for a privileged tiny minority. Crime would soar. Even if the global warming hypothesis were correct, there would still be no justification for the policy of ending the burning of fossil fuels. The fact that there is no cost benefit analysis discussion of the burning of fossil fuels in the political mainstream is itself evidence that the Climate Change narrative has nothing to do with science and everything to do with politics.

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